NEW FIH WORLD RANKING POINTS MODEL - Understanding it & Implication on Malaysian Hockey Team - Rolled out on January 1, 2020

Its based on the Elo rating system, which is used as the basis of many other sports ranking systems. When 2 nations play against each other, a number of ranking points are exchanged between them.In every match, the number of points gained by one team is exactly matched by the number of points lost by the other. 

Teams will win more points for beating teams ranked above them, and therefore teams will lose more points for losing to a team ranked below them. Teams will win less points for beating teams ranked below them, and therefore teams will lose less points for losing to a team ranked above them. If a draw occurs, the lower ranked team will gain a small number of points and the higher ranked team will lose the same number of points. 

The number of points exchanged is dependent on the result of the match (win, lose, shootout win/loss or draw), the importance of the match (part of a major tournament, or a test series for example), and the relative difference in ranking points between the teams before the match.

World Ranking system – a match based on algorithm 

P(after) = P(before) + R*W*I 

• P(after) = Number of World Ranking points after match 

• P(before) = Number of World Ranking points before match 

• R = match result (10 for a win, 5 for a shootout win, 1 for a draw) 

•W = Weighting (1 minus the difference in ranking points [winner – loser] or in the case of a draw [lower ranked – higher ranked], of the 2 teams, divided by 1000*) 

• I = Importance (Each type of tournament and match is given a weighting depending on the importance of the match. There is no difference in Importance between continents)

*If the difference in ranking points before the match is greater than 1000, then a maximum Weighting of 2 is applied if the lower ranked team wins, or 0 if the higher ranked team wins. This is to not discourage higher ranked nations from playing against lower ranked nations for the risk of losing lots of points

Weighting (W) example calculation 

Team A have 500 pts pre match Team B have 1000 pts pre match 

If Team A win: Weighting = 1 - ((500-1000)/1000) = 1.5 

If Team B win: Weighting = 1 - ((1000-500)/1000) = 0.5 

In the case of a draw: Weighting = 1 - ((500-1000)/1000) = 1.5

Event Importance (I) 

• World Cup 10 
• Olympic Games 10 
• WC/OG Qualifier 6 
• Cont. Champs. 6 
• FIH Pro League 5 
• Continental qualifier 3
• Cont. Champs. Div2 3 
• 3+ team invitational 2 
• Cont. Champs. Div3 2 
• One off Test match 1 
• Cont Champs Div4 1

The Implication:

Malaysian Men Hockey Team:

Firstly, you have to look at the Event Importance (I), which indicates Importance and numbers given based on level of competition. Bottom line Malaysian Team have to play in Olympics & World Cup as both events give 10 for I. This is where Malaysian team will loose out in world ranking points as we are not playing in Tokyo Olympics and also by non participation in FIH Pro League the Importance of 5, Malaysian will not get any points and the 9 Pro League teams gap will be widen. 

And as for teams like Japan, Canada & South Africa will get many points as playing in Tokyo Olympics that gives importance of 10. If this 3 teams makes to the QF stage and beyond than their points will get closer with Malaysia points and Canada who is ranked 10th will collect more points and it will be tough for Malaysia to break top 10. More so, this 4 teams will be playing as many matches as possible in their preparation towards next year's Olympic Games.

As for Asian Games & Asia Cup Competition, the Importance given is 6. No allocation of Importance points at Sea Games outdoor level but with more than 3 teams then Importance of 2 or one off Test Match Importance of 1 will be considered.

Only important tournament for Malaysia will be the 2021 Men's Asia Cup as it gives 3 slots to 2023 World Cup in India and the level of importance is at 6. Overall Malaysia Men's team will be revolving by playing matches at Importance level from 1-6 the max.

Malaysia have to be worried for France who drastically improved their rankings from 17 to 11 now. Difference of points only 100, and if France periodization plan and play many tournaments than they may surpass us. And they are rebuilding and in preparation towards 2024 Paris Olympics.

My Question, with FIH Pro League & Tokyo Olympics postponed to next year, how Malaysia team is going to play official test matches with top 9 ranked teams in the World as their schedule is fully booked with events.

As for Sultan Azlan Shah event, the importance will be of 2. It means that the Top Teams playing in Tokyo Olympics & FIH Pro League will be well ahead than Malaysia. 

And the delay of FIH Nation Cup, for sure it will dampen further the ranking points for Malaysian team.

The most important assignment will be the 2021 Men's Asia Cup which acts as qualifier to 2023 World Cup where 3 slots given with host India. This event importance will be at level 6. Malaysia need to perform in this tournament to sustain a better ranking points. 

Lets make an assumption:

This year only competition is Asian Champions Trophy, the importance will be 2. Then Malaysia plays in next year Sultan Azlan Shah & 2021 Men's Asia Cup which is also importance of 2 & 6 and may play in 4 Nations or some one off test matches that provides Importance of 2 & 1. Technically, Malaysian ranking will be affected as Malaysia will only be playing at events at Importance of 2-6 and below. 

Whereas, teams like Australia Belgium, Argentina, England/GB, India, Germany, Holland , Spain & New Zealand will be playing in Tokyo Olympics (Importance of 10) and FIH Pro League (Importance of 5) which is higher than Malaysian team which plays the events next year at highest Importance level of 2. The gap will be widen for sure based on the Algorithm model.

Currently, Malaysia is ranked second in Asia, it means at Asian Games level, Malaysia will only get greater points if they beat India as they ranked 5th in World and cannot afford to lose to teams like Pakistan, Korea, Japan and China as they will gain more points from Malaysia. 

Another pertinent point is winning a match gets greater points than winning a shootout which R is = match result (10 for a win, 5 for a shootout win, 1 for a draw).

The 3 i.e R*W*I is very importance in this model Result X Weighting X Importance. Therefore, the periodization of the National Teams must be planned vigilantly taking into the consideration of this RWI.

It shows that today till Asian Games in Hangzhou 2022, Malaysia could only be able to play matches of Importance of 2 i.e. Sultan Azlan Shah, Asian Champions Trophy, test matches and invitational tournaments more than 3 teams.

Only at Asian Games & WC/Olympic Qualifier the importance changes to level 6. Then Malaysia needs to qualify to 2023 WC in India and need to qualify to second round as more matches and wins will give you greater points.

Malaysian Women Hockey Team 

As for Malaysian Women Hockey Team to improve their rankings is going to be very difficult as they only participate few events such as Asian Games, Asia Cups and WC/Olympics Qualifiers. 

In Malaysia, we don't have any International Invitational Women Tournament. Only hope for one-off test matches but is very rare for top European Teams or Oceania teams will invite our Women team to play. The best bet is to play against India, China, Japan and Korean teams but you be must be aware that a defeat will reduce your points. 

Malaysian Women team must keep close on teams like France, Belarus, Czechoslovakia & Scotland and be vary of their plan of matches. These four teams are trait and they may surpass our rankings. 

R W I is Key to Improve your World Rankings:

To improve rankings, a team must maximize the R W I intelligently. Therefore, the bearers must understand and comprehend this Model which would them to plan accordingly and not shooting from the hips and announcing flip-flop statements.

A Team must:
- to play consistently at Olympics & World Cup & to finish as high as possible. At least second round at WC and QF at Olympics and winning the 60 mins matches as SO gives less points.

- Early planning of official matches against above ranked teams is crucial.

- Organised more International Invitational Tournaments - must be more than 3 teams and invite higher ranked teams.

- At Asian Games level cannot afford to lose against lower ranked teams.

- At WC/Olympic Qualifiers must be performing at best and qualifying to final rounds of play i.e.playoff of 2 matches home & away of aggregate score.

- Have to qualify to play in the main FIH Pro League thru the FIH Nation Cup. 

Shortcomings of FIH New Ranking Model:

- No limit of matches per year for each team.

- When will the points reset again or it will be ongoing without resseting. Then the equitabilities will be wide between top teams that plays in Olympics, World Cup & FIH Pro League compare to teams outside these tournaments.

- No minimum participation points based on final standings for Olympic or World Cup and other events. If a team loses all matches, his points will be badly hit even though participated at the highest level of tournament.

- Many top teams may avoid playing lower ranked team. 

- There will be an increase of unofficial matches without TMS to avoid rankings. Official test matches will reduce drastically.

- Coaches cannot use young players to be tested in Official Matches as the risk of losing points is greater.

- The Importance (1) bandwidth need to be tweaked as the levels of difference is high. Might be for Olympic and WC it should be at 8 rather than 10.
- No points for Junior Teams such as playing in Junior World Cup and Qualifiers. FIH must come with ranking points for Junior Teams too.

- The Nation with high income funding with unlimited cashflow will gain the most from this model. It means they could hold matches, tournaments, participate in invited tournaments and travel around to globe to collect points.

- If the difference in ranking points before the match is greater than 1000, then a maximum Weighting of 2 is applied if the lower ranked team wins, or 0 if the higher ranked team wins. In this situation the higher ranked team would not want to waste their resources and will avoid playing such matches. The lower ranked teams will suffer.

Therefore, the planning of periodization plan must be addressed as soon as possible or else you wouldn't get to play any matches or tournaments. So the selection of teams  invited for Sultan Azlan Shah Cup now has the bearing & implications on the rankings. The methodology should be thoroughly thought and not just invite any team that is available.

So the decision makers must be well educated with this new world ranking model based on algorithm.

From 2020 till 2022 - Malaysian Men will only play matches at Importance Level from 1 to 6 as missed out on Tokyo Olympics. When in 2023 Men's World Cup, then Malaysian Team will play event level 10, which is 3 years away, therefore, MHC must be aware of this predicaments and plan accordingly. As for Women team is in the similar position and forever they will play events from level 1-6 unless they qualify to Olympics or World Cup, which is tough to achieve it.

The best part, met with some of former internationals over Teh-Tarik and explained about this model and the question they raised were - Is MHC aware of this Model? and they answer was we don't think so. Then how do they plan? A former International said "kais pagi makan pagi, kais petang makan petang lah" We had a great laugh and enjoyed that evening very well.

Hope the Executive Board, Coaching Team & National Team Management are aware of this model rather than going to the ground for PR exercise and responding to Press without valid knowledge and no understanding of the details of World Hockey.

To my readers, thank you for the support and the numbers of readers are increasing enormously.

Have a great weekend with your loved ones..